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May 17th MLB news ... Welcome to Baseball sports betting online, the place that provides the baseball bettor with everything he needs to handicap a game.
Welcome to baseballsportsbettingonline.com, the place that provides the baseball bettor with everything he needs to handicap a game.
In order to score a profit on the game of baseball, the bettor needs to stay on top of all of the ever changing trends and stats.
By logging on daily, the bettor will have access to in depth information on all 30 MLB teams.
In order to score a profit on the game of baseball, the bettor needs to stay on top of all of the ever changing trends and stats.
By logging on daily, the bettor will have access to in depth information on all 30 MLB teams.
MLB News
Triple Crown winner in 2010 MLB?
2010-08-19
When it comes to rare feats of baseball greatness, there’s little that can compare to the elusive Triple Crown. How lucky are we, us mere mortals, to witness six legitimate Triple Crown contenders this year? Baseball betting is keeping a close eye on this race.
To put this in perspective, no one has won a batting Triple Crown (leading the AL, NL, or MLB in batting average, home runs, and RBI) since Carl Yastrzemski did it in 1967. In the National League, it hasn’t been done since 1937. In total, it’s happened just 13 times in either league since 1900.
While the pitching Triple Crown is a much more attainable award (winners lead a league in ERA, wins, and strikeouts), it’s still quite a rarity. Sandy Koufax did it three times in four years, and Lefty Grove, Grover Cleveland Alexander, and Roger Clemens put together back-to-back Triple Crowns during their careers. Most recently, Randy Johnson climbed the mountain in 2002, Johan Santana won a major league Triple Crown in 2006, and the following year, Jake Peavy won one in the NL. Still, only 30 of these magical seasons have come together for a pitcher since the turn of the 20th century, and a majority of those came well before 1950.
In a year that has featured a few breakout rookies, a number of magnificent pitching performances, the vanishing specter of steroids, and what looks to be one of the most exciting NL Wild Card races in recent memory, this is truly a special season. But do baseball’s best have what it takes to put together one of the most statistically improbable seasons of all time? Let’s go down the list, from least likely to most likely.
3. Miguel Cabrera (and Josh Hamilton). Once the only legitimate threat of breaking the 43-year streak without a Triple Crown winner, Cabrera’s biggest obstacle has been the incredible two months that Texas’ Josh Hamilton has put together. Hamilton hit .454 in June, and followed that up with a .421 batting average for the month of July. Meanwhile, Cabrera’s relatively cool June (he hit a miserable .323) has put him well behind Hamilton for the AL’s—and MLB’s—highest average, at .347 to Hamilton’s .362. Unless Hamilton gets hurt or just stops seeing the ball (unlikely) it seems that Cabrera’s shot at a Triple Crown is fading. But Cabrera is leading in the MVP lines at www.sportsbook.com he currently sits in the lead at -150, while Hamilton is even money. He leads Hamilton by a couple of home runs (25 to 23), but his RBI total is so far ahead of the rest of the pack that he’ll spoil any chance that the Rangers’ star might have had—Cabrera’s 89 RBI are 15 more than Hamilton’s total, and the Rangers have a history of fading late in the season. Both of these guys would need an injury for an AL Triple Crown to be a realistic goal.
2. Joey Votto. Votto is having just the kind of season that wins a Triple Crown in a down year for NL batters. The problem is, his teammates just aren’t helping him out. Despite a .322 batting average that tops the league (and has been much higher) and an NL-leading 26 home runs (proof that steroids are less of a problem than they once were…that’s a good month for Barroid Bonds), he hasn’t had the runners on base in front of him. His 70 RBI puts him tied for third in the league in RBI, 11 behind the Phillies’ Ryan Howard. Keep in mind, however, that there’s a big drop-off after Howard. Votto would be one off the NL lead for RBI if the Phillies’ first baseman wasn’t playing. Howard pumped up his RBI totals in a big way over the past month, and any cool-off for him would be great news for the Reds’ breakout star. Votto has hit a bit of a bump in the road in terms of power production. Over the course of the next two months, Votto still has a chance to surpass Howard for RBI supremacy—if his teammates can get on base ahead of him.
1. Roy Halladay (and Adam Wainwright, and Josh Johnson). OK, I’m kind of cheating here, but hear me out. All three of these guys are right at the top of the NL’s strikeout leaderboard, Halladay’s 149 just leading Johnson’s 146 and Wainright’s 142. That’s a toss-up that makes any one of those players a big danger to the others’ hopes for a Triple Crown. The reason it’s so hard to see if any of these guys is capable of taking home the hardware is that, strangely enough, Wainwright has the most wins of the pack, but the highest ERA; and Johnson, who has by far the fewest wins, has by far the lowest ERA. To sum up, that’s Wainright with 14 wins, 2.23 ERA; Halladay with 12 wins, 2.21 ERA, and Johnson with 10 wins, 1.72 ERA. Overall, Johnson has to be taken out because it’s unlikely that the Marlins will be able to provide him with the 6-7 wins he’d need to win the Triple Crown. Halladay has the best chance, because his win total would be higher if the Phillies’ offense didn’t have such a dreadful year. Now that that seems to be turning around, given his history of ridiculous efficiency, it’s easier to imagine Halladay lowering his ERA to beat Johnson than Wainright. More likely, however, I don’t see an NL Triple Crown winner for the pitchers this year, as the three power pitches cannibalize each other’s chances. Surprisingly Roy Halladay trails Wainwright in the Cy Young lines at www.sportsbook.com currently at +200 that Halladay wins it.
MLB: Terrific Totals System in Houston
2010-04-29
After a 0-8 start to 2010, the Astros finally got off the launching pad and won eight of their next 10 to post a respectable record for April. Unfortunately the next opponent after the hot stretch was Cincinnati, their kryptonite if you will. The Reds have won the first two games of this series taking their record to 11-1 against the Stros, with six wins in seven tries at Minute Maid Park. In the final game of the set, the host Astros send ace Roy Oswalt to the mound and are a -170 ML favorite according to Sportsbook.com.
Tonight’s situation doesn’t set up nearly as well for the Reds as the last two days, facing their greatest nemesis. Houston’s offense is laughable, ranked last in runs scored at 3.3 per game and on-base percentage of .285, but that hardly matters with Roy Oswalt (2-2, 2.42 ERA) pitching. The right-hander is 23-1 lifetime against Cincinnati with a 2.58 ERA. When dressed in the home whites, Oswalt is perfect 12-0 in 16 starts with even lower earned run average of 2.26.
Oswalt will be opposed by Bronson Arroyo (0-2, 7.43), who is like a Moen faucet, he runs hot and cold. Presently he is in the near frozen category, but his manager has seen this before.
“We’ve covered this before,” Dusty Baker said. “He’ll go through a few starts where he struggles, then he’ll reel off seven or eight in a row. I hope this is the end of the bad streak.”
Arroyo is 4-0 in last four starts against Houston, with razor-sharp 1.69 ERA and two complete games.
Houston is a -170 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com; however the important number is the total which is 7.5 for this super situation.
Play Under on home teams when the total is 7 to 8.5, with a repugnant offensive scoring less than 4.1 runs per game, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, facing a NL pitcher with ERA of 5.70 or higher.
Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average first climbed above 8,000 (1997), this totals system is 38-13. For additional reinforcement, Arroyo is 13-2 UNDER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game and Houston is 27-12 UNDER the first month of the season the last two years.
Take a long look at this highly profitable baseball system.
MLB: The Texas Rangers are an Under team!
2009-08-19
One of the more unusual aspects of the 2009 baseball season has been the play of the Texas Rangers and not for the typical reasons many would consider. The Rangers are still within striking distance of the Los Angeles Angels for the lead in the AL West and are running neck and neck with Boston for the wild card after sweeping them at home this past weekend. What makes this Texas team absolutely crazy is how they have evolved against the oddsmakers totals.
After years of being a high scoring club that more resembled a top level slow-pitch softball team by the way they could score runs, these Rangers are fairly pedestrian 12th in Major League Baseball at 4.8 runs per game. The shocker is the pitching. Having played seven more home games than road games to date this season, Texas is sixth in runs allowed at (that is SIXTH, like in 7-1= 6) 4.3 runs per game. While most Rangers fans only dreamed of ever seeing competent big league pitching, manager Ron Washington actually has them performing it.
With a slightly above average offense and a pitching staff taking this team places it has never seen, Texas has confounded oddmakers and bettors alike. Texas is the top Under team in baseball by a large margin at 73-40-4. If you analyzed the standings of the top Under teams in baseball like the regular baseball standings, the Rangers would have a lead similar to the Yankees, 7.5 games clear of the second place Chicago White Sox, who is 67-49-3 Under this season.
What has accounted for this change in Texas baseball? Rest assured the skipper Washington wished he had more offense, it just hasn’t happened. The Rangers Ballpark at Arlington is still the same; short fences in the power alleys will still surrender an ample amount of home runs, with the Rangers second in baseball to the Yankees. However, when you look at the hitting numbers, they don’t add up like prior years. Michael Young is still Michael Young, hitting well over .300, but he’s the only starter even close. Second baseman Ian Kinsler and Hank Blalock are closer to the Mendoza-line (.200 batting average) than to batting .300. Josh Hamilton’s off-season indiscretions aside, he’s a mere shell of the player who was a true All-Star in 2008, currently with eight homers and 40 runs batted in.
In 2009, this Rangers club is built around pitching and its new philosophy. President Nolan Ryan didn’t want any more coddling of pitchers; he wants them to be a man like he was. Pitch counts are for wussies, throw strikes and have your fielders take care of the rest.
Consider these un-Rangers’ like numbers. In the American League, Texas is 3rd in ERA and WHIP, and 5th in batting average allowed and on-base percentage allowed. Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson lead a bullpen that has converted 36 of 45 save attempts, among the best in baseball. Plus, collectively, the bullpen has a rare better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.
Though it takes getting used to, at almost three-quarters of the way thru the season, Texas is Under team and it’s not a fluke. This is supported by 39-20-3 Under record at home, 29-11-2 Under record versus left-hand starters and 37-20-2 Under mark as a favorite.
Our sitting president talked a year ago about change, the Texas Rangers represent one of the biggest changes in baseball in 2009, being a decided Under team.
MLB: Can you trust these money-making MLB hurlers?
2009-06-24
Each baseball season, we learn by following who are the best pitchers in baseball. We’ve become conditioned to look for names like Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, C.C. Sabathia and others. Most years, pitchers targeted for greatness also put it all together and this year we have seen Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley and Dan Haren to name a few become dominant, with bright futures ahead of them.
With success come overvalued money lines, as oddsmakers smell opportunity and will make sports bettors pay to play on their favorite pitchers with proven track records. A big time pitcher like Halladay has 10-1 record and Toronto has won 10 of his 14 starts, yet baseball bettors have walked away with a mere +2.7 units of profit backing the Blue Jays chucker.
A far simpler method of seeking tidy sums of money is to follow what pitchers have brought in the most money. For example, does it make sense to take the Top 5 pitchers in units won and bet those toeing the rubber and their respective team’s until they prove they are not worthy of our money? Or are these pitchers such a crap shoot, that from start to start they are unpredictable as to what type of outcome they will provide?
Here is a look at the best five pitchers in the game and what their prospects are in terms of future playability.
At the ripe old age of 29, Matt Palmer (6-1, 8-2 team record, +9.1 units) made his way onto major league roster in San Francisco and started three games for Giants with 0-2 record and ERA of 8.53 last season. Palmer made his way south to join the Los Angeles Angels and was ticketed for more minor league duty. The Angels pitching staff was a quandary in the spring and Palmer showed enough to be a starter. Working with pitching coach John Butcher, Palmer became more consistent in throwing strikes and has been hitting his spots while changing speeds.
Palmer has kept the Halos in games and has been the beneficiary of good offensive outings, as Los Angeles has scored four or more runs in all but one of his starts. Palmer has been up to the pitching challenge, having faced the ace of opposing team in seven of his 10 starts. You can’t help but wonder if the right-hander is enjoying his proverbial 15 minutes of fame. Right-hand hitters are batting just .223 against him; however history is not on his side arriving in the bigs so late in his career.
Betting- Consider mostly home starts at -125 or less
Josh Johnson (7-1, 12-3, +8.9 units) is mountain of a man at 6’7, 230 pounds for Florida. The 25-year old is blossoming into quite a pitcher, be it relative obscurity. Johnson’s fastball of 92-96 looks faster because of his size and downhill angle. He’s become proficient of going up the ladder (low pitches early in the count and moving up later) and has power slider. His mental makeup comes thru, as he and the Marlins are 5-1 on the road and perfect 5-0 as underdogs. Night vision goggles required for opposing hitters, with 1.74 ERA after dark.
Betting – Strong play as present time
In the last few years, if you wanted to make money, it was bet against the Giants with Matt Cain (9-1, 11-3, +8.2 units) pitching. The 24-year old former first round pick, either received little run support, or had one bad inning that resulted in too many 5-4 or 3-2 losses. He’s been everyone’s favorite play against pitcher, until this season. With a reduction of weight in the off-season, his four-seam fastball is more in the mid-90’s and tailing two-seamer has been lower in the strike zone, resulting in fewer fly balls. He’s better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio for the first time in three years and has more pitched games with two or less walks then in the past. Still has big upside, if he keeps command and wants to thrive as strong No.2 with Lincecum.
Betting – Terrific play as favorite with San Fran 9-1.
To give you an idea of how long Tim Wakefield has played Major League baseball, the year he came up “Aladdin” was the top grossing movie (1992). Back then, Wakefield probably messed around throwing a knuckleball with his teammates in jest. In about six weeks, Wakefield (9-3, 11-3, +7.9 units) will be 43 years old and he’s been a god-send for Boston with an ineffective Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Smoltz finally making the active roster. Nothing has really changed for Wakefield’s fluttering pitch, other than the fact he’s seen Red Sox hitters pound out six or more runs in nine of his 14 starts.
Betting – Red Sox are 7-0 at Fenway with Wakefield tossing, nonetheless hard to support at much more than -160 at home.
Here’s a rarity, Jason Marquis (9-4, 10-4, +7.3 units) admits he likes pitching at Coors Field. The traveled right-hander took the right attitude and embraced pitching in the Colorado Mountains and he along with newfound teammates are 5-2 at home or on the road. Granted his ERA and WHIP are decidedly higher at home, but that is to be expected. Since being hammered in the middle of May by Houston (nine runs), Marquis has surrender four or less runs in last seven starts. He’s been much more effective during the day with 2.93 ERA compared 4.33 under the lights.
Betting – Other then 2005, when Marquis was 15-7 in St. Louis, little reason to believe he will keep pitching this well unless the Rockies score seven runs a game. He is however worth a look as underdog with 6-1 mark. (Rockies record)
MLB: Three more Opening Day Baseball Betting Opportunities
2009-04-07
There was an abundance of ugly April weather in the upper Midwest and East, which cancelled two season openers in Chicago and Boston on Monday. That shouldn’t temper too much of the enthusiasm of fans in those cities, who just have to bundle up a little bit more and keep those liquid beverages coming. Out West, the last two teams scheduled to join the season opening festivities will do battle, with San Francisco and it Cy Young winner hosting Milwaukee, giving baseball bettors six new teams to look at to start the 2009 campaign.
2:05 E – Kansas City at Chicago White Sox– FSRM and CSN
The Chicago White Sox open defense of their AL Central division title a day later than expected against a Kansas City team excited to get playing. The Royals closed the last season 18-8, giving them reasons for optimism they can compete for the postseason. They will need young players like third-baseman Alex Gordon to start fulfilling expectations and the continued development of pitching staff. Gil Meche will be the opening day starter for the Royals who are +130 money line underdogs at Sportsbook.com, with total Ov7.5. Last season, Kansas City was 14-8 in underdog role with Meche starting. The White Sox have low expectations by prognosticators, which is just the way they like it. Mark Buehrle will make his seventh opening day start and is .500 in that spot. Chicago has been a dominant home team and is coming off 20-6 year playing at US Cellular Field during the day.
4:05 E – Tampa Bay at Boston – NESN
It’s a rematch of last season’s American League championship. Tampa Bay will look to defend its title starting at a place they where they used to be soundly beaten. The Rays are 25-68 against Boston at Fenway Park; however they won four of six in September and October to help propel them to first ever playoffs and World Series. James Shields believes he’s a 20-game winner if he pitches better on the road and this will be excellent opportunity to test his belief. The Red Sox are -150 home favorites and with Ov8.5 total, with Josh Becket taking the mound. Boston was 32-12 (+14.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 last season and would like to reestablish dominance at home from the start.
4:05 E - Milwaukee at San Francisco – FSWI and CSBA
The last two National League teams will get their season’s underway out in the Bay Area. Tim Lincecum off his brilliant season with 18-5 record, a 2.62 ERA and a major league-best 265 strikeouts, draws the opening day assignment for San Francisco. After years of being one of the oldest teams in baseball, the Giants are starting three infielders 25 years old or younger, as they begin rebuilding process after losing 90 games in 2008. Milwaukee will hopes its supply of power-laden young hitters can carry the team back to the postseason season, after making the playoff for the first time in 26 years. The Brewers have a dangerous with lineup Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy, who can all crush the ball. Veteran Jeff Suppan is the designated starter, in part because of years of service. He and Milwaukee are +150 money line underdogs, with total Ov7. The Brewers have lost 59 of last 87 games as road underdog, with San Fran having won 14 of last 20 home games.
MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends
2008-08-08
Two key series’ in each league will highlight the MLB schedule for the weekend as continue to push deeper into the pennant races. In the National League, division rivals will go head-to-head in both Chicago and New York, as the Cubs welcome St. Louis to town, and the Mets host a 3-game series against the Marlins. In the American League, it’s the battle of the Sox, Red and White, from the south side of the Chicago, along with a big series on the West Coast with the Angels welcoming the Yankees to L.A. It’s a big weekend of baseball, so here’s a closer look at all four of those key series’, along with a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 weekend matchups on the diamond.
On the north side of the Windy City, the N.L. Central Division leading Cubs will host rival St. Louis. The Cardinals sit 6-games back in the division race and 1-game out of the top wildcard spot in the National League. They are starting a critical 10-game road swing this weekend that also includes stops in Florida and Cincinnati. Fortunately for St. Louis, the road has been kind this year, as the Cards boast a healthy 31-25 record away, having scored 5.3 runs per game while batting .282. Still, the Cubs 43-16 record at Wrigley could trump any of those numbers.
At Shea, the Mets and Marlins will go at it for three key games over the weekend. With both teams back within 2-games of division leading Philadelphia, the series takes on significance. Neither team can afford to lose ground to the Phillies, who host the lowly Pirates this weekend. New York has taken five of the nine meetings between these teams this year and will be looking to improve its 34-21 record at home. The Mets are 11-2 in their last 13 games as hosts and haven’t lost a series in New York since June. Meanwhile, the next 10 games for the Marlins could make or break the ’08 season, as all 10 come against teams in the pennant race.
Switching focus to the junior circuit, on the south side of Chicago, the Red Sox will spend the weekend at U.S. Cellular Field taking on the leaders of the Central Division. Boston remains in striking distance of Tampa Bay in the East, but this figures to be a key 4-game series for the Red Sox, since they’ve struggled on the road against good teams this year. The White Sox meanwhile, are just a half-game up in the Central over Minnesota and have not fared well against Boston lately, losing six of the last seven at home.
Finally, in Los Angeles, the Yankees and Angels hook up for the second straight weekend, only this time on the other side of the country. In New York last weekend, the teams split four games. The Yankees face a big six-game road trip which will conclude in Minnesota in the early part of next week. At 5-1/2 games down to the Rays, anything shy of a 3-3 trip will be damaging to their playoff hopes. For the Angels, sitting comfortably 12 games ahead in the West, it’s almost time to start counting magic numbers.
Now, here’s a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 series’ on tap for the weekend.
ST LOUIS at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 14-4 (+9.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better this season.
The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 6.2, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)
PITTSBURGH at PHILADELPHIA
PITTSBURGH is 12-45 (-26.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.9, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 2*)
HOUSTON at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 19-33 (-18.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 2*)
FLORIDA at NY METS
FLORIDA is 19-12 (+14.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was FLORIDA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)
WASHINGTON at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 20-3 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 6.1, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 2*)
SAN DIEGO at COLORADO
SAN DIEGO is 4-17 (-16.7 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.4, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 4*)
ATLANTA at ARIZONA
ATLANTA is 29-13 UNDER (+13.6 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 4.3, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*)
LA DODGERS at SAN FRANCISCO
LA DODGERS are 23-12 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 73-33 (+31.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 5.7 or more runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at DETROIT
DETROIT is 17-25 (-13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 5.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at TORONTO
TORONTO is 13-1 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 6.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY
MINNESOTA is 21-7 (+17.3 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 4*)
BOSTON at CHI WHITE SOX
BOSTON is 11-24 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was BOSTON 4.1, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)
NY YANKEES at LA ANGELS
NY YANKEES are 11-0 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was NY YANKEES 6.5, OPPONENT 1.7 - (Rating = 4*)
TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE
TAMPA BAY is 5-17 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.4, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB Series Betting – L.A. Angels at L.A. Dodgers
2008-06-27
The I-5 Freeway Series has the traffic heading north to Dodger Stadium this weekend for the final series of interleague play. The series odds at Sportsbook show each team as -115, so it’s deemed a toss up in oddsmakers’ eyes. If you have a feeling on how this weekend’s City of Angels series will go, be sure to click on the Live Odds link anytime before Friday’s 10 PM start.
The Angels continue the final lap of nine-game road trip, after successfully navigating the East with 5-1 record in Philadelphia and Washington. This Anaheim bunch is an odd sort, with the best record in the American League at 48-31, yet has only outscored the opposition by 18 runs on the season, which places them between the Yankees and Cleveland. They only manufacture 4.3 runs per game with starting outfield one could expect do that just by them selves most nights. The Angels are baseball’s best road team by a wide margin at 26-13, +13.9 units. They appear very comfortable in close games with 36-19 record in contests decided by three or less runs.
Further north, if the Dodgers (36-42, -11 units) were playing even remotely decent baseball, they could well be leading the NL West. As Arizona has been come back to near .500, Dodger Blue has posted 11-21 record since May 24, gaining not an inch on the first place Snakes. A potential positive spin Joe Torre can use is despite how poorly the Dodgers have played, they are still just as far back as they were just over a month ago. This whole interleague thing has been bad news for the boys in blue who are 3-8 this season against the American League and 18-42 since 2005.
Chan Ho Park (2-2, 2.83, 1.405 WHIP) draws the opening assignment for the Dodgers, making just his third start of the season and second in a row filling in for Brad Penny. The best they can hope for is Park can pitch five innings and allow no more than three runs and hope the bullpen and his own team’s bats can do the rest. For nostalgia buff’s, the Dodgers are 8-2 at home when Park starts against winning teams. He’ll be matchup against a potential all-star Joe Saunders (11-3, 3.03, 1.119 WHIP). The lefty Saunders has the ability to pitch in on right-handed batters, keeping the third baseman and shortstop busy. As well as Saunders has pitched, he’s a bulldog on the road with 6-1 record and evaporating ERA of 1.89. He and the Angels are 12-3 off a loss. Sportsbook.com has the Halos as -115 favorites with total Ov8.
Game 1 Edge: Angels
Jered Weaver (7-7, 4.56, 1.314 WHIP) is still only 25 years old, now in his third year with the red-clad Angels. Though not said publicly, Anaheim insiders are disheartened with the lack of progress Weaver has made, essentially regressing since 11-2 2006 entrance. What’s disturbing is RH batters hit .275 against him, meaning he’s hitting a lot of bats. Though Weaver has rebounded to win five of last seven starts, his ERA is still over four, hardly ace material the Angels were expecting. His mound opponent is Chad Billingsley (6-7, 3.63, 1.373 WHIP), whose even younger at age 23 and showing signs of being more consistent in the strike zone. Billingsley has redwoods for legs and has problems with his lower half from movement standpoint, which changes arm angle, causing him to walk more batters and go deeper into pitch counts. Twice in his last four starts, he’s walked just one hitter. The Dodgers come into this series having won last four games against team that has a road winning percentage greater than .600. Weaver has gotten pumped up for these conflicts, having beaten the Dodgers three times, with 2.08 ERA.
Game 2 Edge: Dodgers
The Angels entered this series with 10-2 road record in June, as bullpen has been coming around with 4.05 ERA, after hovering in the high 4’s most of the season. If all goes well, they won’t be called upon much with John Lackey (5-1, 1.65, 0.933 WHIP) starting in the series finale. After beginning the season on the DL, Lackey has been a workhorse, always pitching at least seven innings in his eight starts and giving up as many as seven hits just once. The Dodgers would be wise to load up lineup with RH batters since lefties are hitting measly .175. The Dodgers will counter with Derek Lowe (5-7, 4.05, 1.285 WHIP) as their starter. Lowe’s best pitch is the hard sinker, but at 35, doesn’t have the same command he used to and gets dinged more often. The home team started this series with 13-28 record against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start.
Game 3 Edge: Angels
Though both teams confess to no real hatred, they pick up the vibe from the fans, which adds intensity to each contest in this annual get-together. The Angels have won eight of last 10 in the Freeway Series and are superior on the road, with Torre’s troops just .500 at Dodger Stadium. Seeing the Halos are distinguished in more facets of the game than the Dodgers, they appear to be the right bet in this series wager.
Sportsbook.com series odds: Angels -115, Dodgers -115
StatFox Edge Pick: Angels
2008 Record – 7-2
2010-08-19
When it comes to rare feats of baseball greatness, there’s little that can compare to the elusive Triple Crown. How lucky are we, us mere mortals, to witness six legitimate Triple Crown contenders this year? Baseball betting is keeping a close eye on this race.
To put this in perspective, no one has won a batting Triple Crown (leading the AL, NL, or MLB in batting average, home runs, and RBI) since Carl Yastrzemski did it in 1967. In the National League, it hasn’t been done since 1937. In total, it’s happened just 13 times in either league since 1900.
While the pitching Triple Crown is a much more attainable award (winners lead a league in ERA, wins, and strikeouts), it’s still quite a rarity. Sandy Koufax did it three times in four years, and Lefty Grove, Grover Cleveland Alexander, and Roger Clemens put together back-to-back Triple Crowns during their careers. Most recently, Randy Johnson climbed the mountain in 2002, Johan Santana won a major league Triple Crown in 2006, and the following year, Jake Peavy won one in the NL. Still, only 30 of these magical seasons have come together for a pitcher since the turn of the 20th century, and a majority of those came well before 1950.
In a year that has featured a few breakout rookies, a number of magnificent pitching performances, the vanishing specter of steroids, and what looks to be one of the most exciting NL Wild Card races in recent memory, this is truly a special season. But do baseball’s best have what it takes to put together one of the most statistically improbable seasons of all time? Let’s go down the list, from least likely to most likely.
3. Miguel Cabrera (and Josh Hamilton). Once the only legitimate threat of breaking the 43-year streak without a Triple Crown winner, Cabrera’s biggest obstacle has been the incredible two months that Texas’ Josh Hamilton has put together. Hamilton hit .454 in June, and followed that up with a .421 batting average for the month of July. Meanwhile, Cabrera’s relatively cool June (he hit a miserable .323) has put him well behind Hamilton for the AL’s—and MLB’s—highest average, at .347 to Hamilton’s .362. Unless Hamilton gets hurt or just stops seeing the ball (unlikely) it seems that Cabrera’s shot at a Triple Crown is fading. But Cabrera is leading in the MVP lines at www.sportsbook.com he currently sits in the lead at -150, while Hamilton is even money. He leads Hamilton by a couple of home runs (25 to 23), but his RBI total is so far ahead of the rest of the pack that he’ll spoil any chance that the Rangers’ star might have had—Cabrera’s 89 RBI are 15 more than Hamilton’s total, and the Rangers have a history of fading late in the season. Both of these guys would need an injury for an AL Triple Crown to be a realistic goal.
2. Joey Votto. Votto is having just the kind of season that wins a Triple Crown in a down year for NL batters. The problem is, his teammates just aren’t helping him out. Despite a .322 batting average that tops the league (and has been much higher) and an NL-leading 26 home runs (proof that steroids are less of a problem than they once were…that’s a good month for Barroid Bonds), he hasn’t had the runners on base in front of him. His 70 RBI puts him tied for third in the league in RBI, 11 behind the Phillies’ Ryan Howard. Keep in mind, however, that there’s a big drop-off after Howard. Votto would be one off the NL lead for RBI if the Phillies’ first baseman wasn’t playing. Howard pumped up his RBI totals in a big way over the past month, and any cool-off for him would be great news for the Reds’ breakout star. Votto has hit a bit of a bump in the road in terms of power production. Over the course of the next two months, Votto still has a chance to surpass Howard for RBI supremacy—if his teammates can get on base ahead of him.
1. Roy Halladay (and Adam Wainwright, and Josh Johnson). OK, I’m kind of cheating here, but hear me out. All three of these guys are right at the top of the NL’s strikeout leaderboard, Halladay’s 149 just leading Johnson’s 146 and Wainright’s 142. That’s a toss-up that makes any one of those players a big danger to the others’ hopes for a Triple Crown. The reason it’s so hard to see if any of these guys is capable of taking home the hardware is that, strangely enough, Wainwright has the most wins of the pack, but the highest ERA; and Johnson, who has by far the fewest wins, has by far the lowest ERA. To sum up, that’s Wainright with 14 wins, 2.23 ERA; Halladay with 12 wins, 2.21 ERA, and Johnson with 10 wins, 1.72 ERA. Overall, Johnson has to be taken out because it’s unlikely that the Marlins will be able to provide him with the 6-7 wins he’d need to win the Triple Crown. Halladay has the best chance, because his win total would be higher if the Phillies’ offense didn’t have such a dreadful year. Now that that seems to be turning around, given his history of ridiculous efficiency, it’s easier to imagine Halladay lowering his ERA to beat Johnson than Wainright. More likely, however, I don’t see an NL Triple Crown winner for the pitchers this year, as the three power pitches cannibalize each other’s chances. Surprisingly Roy Halladay trails Wainwright in the Cy Young lines at www.sportsbook.com currently at +200 that Halladay wins it.
MLB: Terrific Totals System in Houston
2010-04-29
After a 0-8 start to 2010, the Astros finally got off the launching pad and won eight of their next 10 to post a respectable record for April. Unfortunately the next opponent after the hot stretch was Cincinnati, their kryptonite if you will. The Reds have won the first two games of this series taking their record to 11-1 against the Stros, with six wins in seven tries at Minute Maid Park. In the final game of the set, the host Astros send ace Roy Oswalt to the mound and are a -170 ML favorite according to Sportsbook.com.
Tonight’s situation doesn’t set up nearly as well for the Reds as the last two days, facing their greatest nemesis. Houston’s offense is laughable, ranked last in runs scored at 3.3 per game and on-base percentage of .285, but that hardly matters with Roy Oswalt (2-2, 2.42 ERA) pitching. The right-hander is 23-1 lifetime against Cincinnati with a 2.58 ERA. When dressed in the home whites, Oswalt is perfect 12-0 in 16 starts with even lower earned run average of 2.26.
Oswalt will be opposed by Bronson Arroyo (0-2, 7.43), who is like a Moen faucet, he runs hot and cold. Presently he is in the near frozen category, but his manager has seen this before.
“We’ve covered this before,” Dusty Baker said. “He’ll go through a few starts where he struggles, then he’ll reel off seven or eight in a row. I hope this is the end of the bad streak.”
Arroyo is 4-0 in last four starts against Houston, with razor-sharp 1.69 ERA and two complete games.
Houston is a -170 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com; however the important number is the total which is 7.5 for this super situation.
Play Under on home teams when the total is 7 to 8.5, with a repugnant offensive scoring less than 4.1 runs per game, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, facing a NL pitcher with ERA of 5.70 or higher.
Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average first climbed above 8,000 (1997), this totals system is 38-13. For additional reinforcement, Arroyo is 13-2 UNDER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game and Houston is 27-12 UNDER the first month of the season the last two years.
Take a long look at this highly profitable baseball system.
MLB: The Texas Rangers are an Under team!
2009-08-19
One of the more unusual aspects of the 2009 baseball season has been the play of the Texas Rangers and not for the typical reasons many would consider. The Rangers are still within striking distance of the Los Angeles Angels for the lead in the AL West and are running neck and neck with Boston for the wild card after sweeping them at home this past weekend. What makes this Texas team absolutely crazy is how they have evolved against the oddsmakers totals.
After years of being a high scoring club that more resembled a top level slow-pitch softball team by the way they could score runs, these Rangers are fairly pedestrian 12th in Major League Baseball at 4.8 runs per game. The shocker is the pitching. Having played seven more home games than road games to date this season, Texas is sixth in runs allowed at (that is SIXTH, like in 7-1= 6) 4.3 runs per game. While most Rangers fans only dreamed of ever seeing competent big league pitching, manager Ron Washington actually has them performing it.
With a slightly above average offense and a pitching staff taking this team places it has never seen, Texas has confounded oddmakers and bettors alike. Texas is the top Under team in baseball by a large margin at 73-40-4. If you analyzed the standings of the top Under teams in baseball like the regular baseball standings, the Rangers would have a lead similar to the Yankees, 7.5 games clear of the second place Chicago White Sox, who is 67-49-3 Under this season.
What has accounted for this change in Texas baseball? Rest assured the skipper Washington wished he had more offense, it just hasn’t happened. The Rangers Ballpark at Arlington is still the same; short fences in the power alleys will still surrender an ample amount of home runs, with the Rangers second in baseball to the Yankees. However, when you look at the hitting numbers, they don’t add up like prior years. Michael Young is still Michael Young, hitting well over .300, but he’s the only starter even close. Second baseman Ian Kinsler and Hank Blalock are closer to the Mendoza-line (.200 batting average) than to batting .300. Josh Hamilton’s off-season indiscretions aside, he’s a mere shell of the player who was a true All-Star in 2008, currently with eight homers and 40 runs batted in.
In 2009, this Rangers club is built around pitching and its new philosophy. President Nolan Ryan didn’t want any more coddling of pitchers; he wants them to be a man like he was. Pitch counts are for wussies, throw strikes and have your fielders take care of the rest.
Consider these un-Rangers’ like numbers. In the American League, Texas is 3rd in ERA and WHIP, and 5th in batting average allowed and on-base percentage allowed. Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson lead a bullpen that has converted 36 of 45 save attempts, among the best in baseball. Plus, collectively, the bullpen has a rare better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.
Though it takes getting used to, at almost three-quarters of the way thru the season, Texas is Under team and it’s not a fluke. This is supported by 39-20-3 Under record at home, 29-11-2 Under record versus left-hand starters and 37-20-2 Under mark as a favorite.
Our sitting president talked a year ago about change, the Texas Rangers represent one of the biggest changes in baseball in 2009, being a decided Under team.
MLB: Can you trust these money-making MLB hurlers?
2009-06-24
Each baseball season, we learn by following who are the best pitchers in baseball. We’ve become conditioned to look for names like Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, C.C. Sabathia and others. Most years, pitchers targeted for greatness also put it all together and this year we have seen Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley and Dan Haren to name a few become dominant, with bright futures ahead of them.
With success come overvalued money lines, as oddsmakers smell opportunity and will make sports bettors pay to play on their favorite pitchers with proven track records. A big time pitcher like Halladay has 10-1 record and Toronto has won 10 of his 14 starts, yet baseball bettors have walked away with a mere +2.7 units of profit backing the Blue Jays chucker.
A far simpler method of seeking tidy sums of money is to follow what pitchers have brought in the most money. For example, does it make sense to take the Top 5 pitchers in units won and bet those toeing the rubber and their respective team’s until they prove they are not worthy of our money? Or are these pitchers such a crap shoot, that from start to start they are unpredictable as to what type of outcome they will provide?
Here is a look at the best five pitchers in the game and what their prospects are in terms of future playability.
At the ripe old age of 29, Matt Palmer (6-1, 8-2 team record, +9.1 units) made his way onto major league roster in San Francisco and started three games for Giants with 0-2 record and ERA of 8.53 last season. Palmer made his way south to join the Los Angeles Angels and was ticketed for more minor league duty. The Angels pitching staff was a quandary in the spring and Palmer showed enough to be a starter. Working with pitching coach John Butcher, Palmer became more consistent in throwing strikes and has been hitting his spots while changing speeds.
Palmer has kept the Halos in games and has been the beneficiary of good offensive outings, as Los Angeles has scored four or more runs in all but one of his starts. Palmer has been up to the pitching challenge, having faced the ace of opposing team in seven of his 10 starts. You can’t help but wonder if the right-hander is enjoying his proverbial 15 minutes of fame. Right-hand hitters are batting just .223 against him; however history is not on his side arriving in the bigs so late in his career.
Betting- Consider mostly home starts at -125 or less
Josh Johnson (7-1, 12-3, +8.9 units) is mountain of a man at 6’7, 230 pounds for Florida. The 25-year old is blossoming into quite a pitcher, be it relative obscurity. Johnson’s fastball of 92-96 looks faster because of his size and downhill angle. He’s become proficient of going up the ladder (low pitches early in the count and moving up later) and has power slider. His mental makeup comes thru, as he and the Marlins are 5-1 on the road and perfect 5-0 as underdogs. Night vision goggles required for opposing hitters, with 1.74 ERA after dark.
Betting – Strong play as present time
In the last few years, if you wanted to make money, it was bet against the Giants with Matt Cain (9-1, 11-3, +8.2 units) pitching. The 24-year old former first round pick, either received little run support, or had one bad inning that resulted in too many 5-4 or 3-2 losses. He’s been everyone’s favorite play against pitcher, until this season. With a reduction of weight in the off-season, his four-seam fastball is more in the mid-90’s and tailing two-seamer has been lower in the strike zone, resulting in fewer fly balls. He’s better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio for the first time in three years and has more pitched games with two or less walks then in the past. Still has big upside, if he keeps command and wants to thrive as strong No.2 with Lincecum.
Betting – Terrific play as favorite with San Fran 9-1.
To give you an idea of how long Tim Wakefield has played Major League baseball, the year he came up “Aladdin” was the top grossing movie (1992). Back then, Wakefield probably messed around throwing a knuckleball with his teammates in jest. In about six weeks, Wakefield (9-3, 11-3, +7.9 units) will be 43 years old and he’s been a god-send for Boston with an ineffective Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Smoltz finally making the active roster. Nothing has really changed for Wakefield’s fluttering pitch, other than the fact he’s seen Red Sox hitters pound out six or more runs in nine of his 14 starts.
Betting – Red Sox are 7-0 at Fenway with Wakefield tossing, nonetheless hard to support at much more than -160 at home.
Here’s a rarity, Jason Marquis (9-4, 10-4, +7.3 units) admits he likes pitching at Coors Field. The traveled right-hander took the right attitude and embraced pitching in the Colorado Mountains and he along with newfound teammates are 5-2 at home or on the road. Granted his ERA and WHIP are decidedly higher at home, but that is to be expected. Since being hammered in the middle of May by Houston (nine runs), Marquis has surrender four or less runs in last seven starts. He’s been much more effective during the day with 2.93 ERA compared 4.33 under the lights.
Betting – Other then 2005, when Marquis was 15-7 in St. Louis, little reason to believe he will keep pitching this well unless the Rockies score seven runs a game. He is however worth a look as underdog with 6-1 mark. (Rockies record)
MLB: Three more Opening Day Baseball Betting Opportunities
2009-04-07
There was an abundance of ugly April weather in the upper Midwest and East, which cancelled two season openers in Chicago and Boston on Monday. That shouldn’t temper too much of the enthusiasm of fans in those cities, who just have to bundle up a little bit more and keep those liquid beverages coming. Out West, the last two teams scheduled to join the season opening festivities will do battle, with San Francisco and it Cy Young winner hosting Milwaukee, giving baseball bettors six new teams to look at to start the 2009 campaign.
2:05 E – Kansas City at Chicago White Sox– FSRM and CSN
The Chicago White Sox open defense of their AL Central division title a day later than expected against a Kansas City team excited to get playing. The Royals closed the last season 18-8, giving them reasons for optimism they can compete for the postseason. They will need young players like third-baseman Alex Gordon to start fulfilling expectations and the continued development of pitching staff. Gil Meche will be the opening day starter for the Royals who are +130 money line underdogs at Sportsbook.com, with total Ov7.5. Last season, Kansas City was 14-8 in underdog role with Meche starting. The White Sox have low expectations by prognosticators, which is just the way they like it. Mark Buehrle will make his seventh opening day start and is .500 in that spot. Chicago has been a dominant home team and is coming off 20-6 year playing at US Cellular Field during the day.
4:05 E – Tampa Bay at Boston – NESN
It’s a rematch of last season’s American League championship. Tampa Bay will look to defend its title starting at a place they where they used to be soundly beaten. The Rays are 25-68 against Boston at Fenway Park; however they won four of six in September and October to help propel them to first ever playoffs and World Series. James Shields believes he’s a 20-game winner if he pitches better on the road and this will be excellent opportunity to test his belief. The Red Sox are -150 home favorites and with Ov8.5 total, with Josh Becket taking the mound. Boston was 32-12 (+14.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 last season and would like to reestablish dominance at home from the start.
4:05 E - Milwaukee at San Francisco – FSWI and CSBA
The last two National League teams will get their season’s underway out in the Bay Area. Tim Lincecum off his brilliant season with 18-5 record, a 2.62 ERA and a major league-best 265 strikeouts, draws the opening day assignment for San Francisco. After years of being one of the oldest teams in baseball, the Giants are starting three infielders 25 years old or younger, as they begin rebuilding process after losing 90 games in 2008. Milwaukee will hopes its supply of power-laden young hitters can carry the team back to the postseason season, after making the playoff for the first time in 26 years. The Brewers have a dangerous with lineup Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy, who can all crush the ball. Veteran Jeff Suppan is the designated starter, in part because of years of service. He and Milwaukee are +150 money line underdogs, with total Ov7. The Brewers have lost 59 of last 87 games as road underdog, with San Fran having won 14 of last 20 home games.
MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends
2008-08-08
Two key series’ in each league will highlight the MLB schedule for the weekend as continue to push deeper into the pennant races. In the National League, division rivals will go head-to-head in both Chicago and New York, as the Cubs welcome St. Louis to town, and the Mets host a 3-game series against the Marlins. In the American League, it’s the battle of the Sox, Red and White, from the south side of the Chicago, along with a big series on the West Coast with the Angels welcoming the Yankees to L.A. It’s a big weekend of baseball, so here’s a closer look at all four of those key series’, along with a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 weekend matchups on the diamond.
On the north side of the Windy City, the N.L. Central Division leading Cubs will host rival St. Louis. The Cardinals sit 6-games back in the division race and 1-game out of the top wildcard spot in the National League. They are starting a critical 10-game road swing this weekend that also includes stops in Florida and Cincinnati. Fortunately for St. Louis, the road has been kind this year, as the Cards boast a healthy 31-25 record away, having scored 5.3 runs per game while batting .282. Still, the Cubs 43-16 record at Wrigley could trump any of those numbers.
At Shea, the Mets and Marlins will go at it for three key games over the weekend. With both teams back within 2-games of division leading Philadelphia, the series takes on significance. Neither team can afford to lose ground to the Phillies, who host the lowly Pirates this weekend. New York has taken five of the nine meetings between these teams this year and will be looking to improve its 34-21 record at home. The Mets are 11-2 in their last 13 games as hosts and haven’t lost a series in New York since June. Meanwhile, the next 10 games for the Marlins could make or break the ’08 season, as all 10 come against teams in the pennant race.
Switching focus to the junior circuit, on the south side of Chicago, the Red Sox will spend the weekend at U.S. Cellular Field taking on the leaders of the Central Division. Boston remains in striking distance of Tampa Bay in the East, but this figures to be a key 4-game series for the Red Sox, since they’ve struggled on the road against good teams this year. The White Sox meanwhile, are just a half-game up in the Central over Minnesota and have not fared well against Boston lately, losing six of the last seven at home.
Finally, in Los Angeles, the Yankees and Angels hook up for the second straight weekend, only this time on the other side of the country. In New York last weekend, the teams split four games. The Yankees face a big six-game road trip which will conclude in Minnesota in the early part of next week. At 5-1/2 games down to the Rays, anything shy of a 3-3 trip will be damaging to their playoff hopes. For the Angels, sitting comfortably 12 games ahead in the West, it’s almost time to start counting magic numbers.
Now, here’s a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 series’ on tap for the weekend.
ST LOUIS at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 14-4 (+9.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better this season.
The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 6.2, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)
PITTSBURGH at PHILADELPHIA
PITTSBURGH is 12-45 (-26.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.9, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 2*)
HOUSTON at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 19-33 (-18.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 2*)
FLORIDA at NY METS
FLORIDA is 19-12 (+14.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was FLORIDA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)
WASHINGTON at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 20-3 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 6.1, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 2*)
SAN DIEGO at COLORADO
SAN DIEGO is 4-17 (-16.7 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.4, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 4*)
ATLANTA at ARIZONA
ATLANTA is 29-13 UNDER (+13.6 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 4.3, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*)
LA DODGERS at SAN FRANCISCO
LA DODGERS are 23-12 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 73-33 (+31.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 5.7 or more runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at DETROIT
DETROIT is 17-25 (-13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 5.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at TORONTO
TORONTO is 13-1 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 6.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY
MINNESOTA is 21-7 (+17.3 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 4*)
BOSTON at CHI WHITE SOX
BOSTON is 11-24 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was BOSTON 4.1, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)
NY YANKEES at LA ANGELS
NY YANKEES are 11-0 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was NY YANKEES 6.5, OPPONENT 1.7 - (Rating = 4*)
TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE
TAMPA BAY is 5-17 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.4, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB Series Betting – L.A. Angels at L.A. Dodgers
2008-06-27
The I-5 Freeway Series has the traffic heading north to Dodger Stadium this weekend for the final series of interleague play. The series odds at Sportsbook show each team as -115, so it’s deemed a toss up in oddsmakers’ eyes. If you have a feeling on how this weekend’s City of Angels series will go, be sure to click on the Live Odds link anytime before Friday’s 10 PM start.
The Angels continue the final lap of nine-game road trip, after successfully navigating the East with 5-1 record in Philadelphia and Washington. This Anaheim bunch is an odd sort, with the best record in the American League at 48-31, yet has only outscored the opposition by 18 runs on the season, which places them between the Yankees and Cleveland. They only manufacture 4.3 runs per game with starting outfield one could expect do that just by them selves most nights. The Angels are baseball’s best road team by a wide margin at 26-13, +13.9 units. They appear very comfortable in close games with 36-19 record in contests decided by three or less runs.
Further north, if the Dodgers (36-42, -11 units) were playing even remotely decent baseball, they could well be leading the NL West. As Arizona has been come back to near .500, Dodger Blue has posted 11-21 record since May 24, gaining not an inch on the first place Snakes. A potential positive spin Joe Torre can use is despite how poorly the Dodgers have played, they are still just as far back as they were just over a month ago. This whole interleague thing has been bad news for the boys in blue who are 3-8 this season against the American League and 18-42 since 2005.
Chan Ho Park (2-2, 2.83, 1.405 WHIP) draws the opening assignment for the Dodgers, making just his third start of the season and second in a row filling in for Brad Penny. The best they can hope for is Park can pitch five innings and allow no more than three runs and hope the bullpen and his own team’s bats can do the rest. For nostalgia buff’s, the Dodgers are 8-2 at home when Park starts against winning teams. He’ll be matchup against a potential all-star Joe Saunders (11-3, 3.03, 1.119 WHIP). The lefty Saunders has the ability to pitch in on right-handed batters, keeping the third baseman and shortstop busy. As well as Saunders has pitched, he’s a bulldog on the road with 6-1 record and evaporating ERA of 1.89. He and the Angels are 12-3 off a loss. Sportsbook.com has the Halos as -115 favorites with total Ov8.
Game 1 Edge: Angels
Jered Weaver (7-7, 4.56, 1.314 WHIP) is still only 25 years old, now in his third year with the red-clad Angels. Though not said publicly, Anaheim insiders are disheartened with the lack of progress Weaver has made, essentially regressing since 11-2 2006 entrance. What’s disturbing is RH batters hit .275 against him, meaning he’s hitting a lot of bats. Though Weaver has rebounded to win five of last seven starts, his ERA is still over four, hardly ace material the Angels were expecting. His mound opponent is Chad Billingsley (6-7, 3.63, 1.373 WHIP), whose even younger at age 23 and showing signs of being more consistent in the strike zone. Billingsley has redwoods for legs and has problems with his lower half from movement standpoint, which changes arm angle, causing him to walk more batters and go deeper into pitch counts. Twice in his last four starts, he’s walked just one hitter. The Dodgers come into this series having won last four games against team that has a road winning percentage greater than .600. Weaver has gotten pumped up for these conflicts, having beaten the Dodgers three times, with 2.08 ERA.
Game 2 Edge: Dodgers
The Angels entered this series with 10-2 road record in June, as bullpen has been coming around with 4.05 ERA, after hovering in the high 4’s most of the season. If all goes well, they won’t be called upon much with John Lackey (5-1, 1.65, 0.933 WHIP) starting in the series finale. After beginning the season on the DL, Lackey has been a workhorse, always pitching at least seven innings in his eight starts and giving up as many as seven hits just once. The Dodgers would be wise to load up lineup with RH batters since lefties are hitting measly .175. The Dodgers will counter with Derek Lowe (5-7, 4.05, 1.285 WHIP) as their starter. Lowe’s best pitch is the hard sinker, but at 35, doesn’t have the same command he used to and gets dinged more often. The home team started this series with 13-28 record against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start.
Game 3 Edge: Angels
Though both teams confess to no real hatred, they pick up the vibe from the fans, which adds intensity to each contest in this annual get-together. The Angels have won eight of last 10 in the Freeway Series and are superior on the road, with Torre’s troops just .500 at Dodger Stadium. Seeing the Halos are distinguished in more facets of the game than the Dodgers, they appear to be the right bet in this series wager.
Sportsbook.com series odds: Angels -115, Dodgers -115
StatFox Edge Pick: Angels
2008 Record – 7-2