February 2012 MLB Events
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MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 6/17-6/19
2010-06-19
Another weekend of interleague baseball is upon us and there are several key series’ you’ll want to keep close tabs on, including the Subway Series in New York between the Mets and Yankees from the Bronx. The Mets have been MLB’s best team in interleague play this season at 8-1, but unfortunately, their colleagues have once again fallen into the clutches of the superior A.L. teams. Heading into Friday’s games, the Junior Circuit holds a 66-60 lead in head-to-head play. Perhaps that can change this weekend, as the N.L. clubs host nine of the 14 interleague sets. Let’s take a look at the key action and reveal the list of Top StatFox Power Trends that you’ll want to consider in your weekend wagering.
The first series you’ll want to take a closer look at puts Minnesota in Philadelphia to take on the Phillies. The hosts come off back-to-back wins at Yankee Stadium and are within 3-1/2 games of the lead in the N.L. East. They are a disappointing 16-13 at home though and have gone just 3-12 for -13.3 net units against A.L. teams at home over the last two seasons. The A.L. Central-leading Twins have historically been one of the best interleague clubs but are a pedestrian 5-4 in 2010.
The Subway series will be the highlight matchup of the weekend for no other reason than the fact that both teams are playing well and at or right near the top of their respective divisions. The Mets come in on a seven game winning streak and as winners of 11 of their last 12 games. Their bats have come alive of late, having pounded out 58 hits over the last four games. The Yankees come in off back-to-back losses but still remain deadlocked with Tampa Bay in the A.L. East standings. These teams hooked up nearly a month ago at Citi Field with the Mets taking two of three. They are 4-2 in their last six games on the road in this rivalry.
The Dodgers and Red Sox square off for three games in what figures to be another great series. After starting the season in shaky fashion, both teams have rebounded quickly and find themselves right back in the hunt in their respective divisions. Boston is just 2-games back in the A.L. East, thanks much in part to an impressive 7-2 interleague record. They have won five of six games on their current homestand vs. N.L. foes, extending their record to 86-39 in interleague play under Terry Francona. The Dodgers, who are tied atop the N.L. West with San Diego, are just 2-4 vs. the A.L. in 2010, including a sweep at the hands of the Angels last weekend.
There are other regional rivalries that should produce good baseball in other parts of the country as well. In Florida, the Marlins welcome Tampa Bay to conclude a home-and-home series and in Houston, the Astros play host to the A.L. West leading Rangers. Elsewhere, Stephen Strasburg throws the first game of the Nationals home series with the White Sox and Pittsburgh looks for a first interleague victory of the year when it hosts Cleveland.
Now, here’s a look at some of those Top StatFox Power Trends you’ll want to consider in your weekend wagering, direct from FoxSheets, the Ultimate Sports Tipsheet
<b><i>MILWAUKEE at COLORADO</b></i>
<li>MILWAUKEE is 22-11 OVER (+10.6 Units) in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.9, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>LA ANGELS at CHICAGO CUBS</b></i>
<li>LA ANGELS are 19-9 (+11.1 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA</b></i>
<li>MINNESOTA is 18-6 (+15.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.0, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>NY METS at NY YANKEES</b></i>
<li>NY YANKEES are 23-3 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.6, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>CHI WHITE SOX at WASHINGTON</b></i>
<li>WASHINGTON is 22-4 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. The average score was WASHINGTON 5.1, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH</b></i>
<li>CLEVELAND is 6-17 (-14.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 3.9, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>ARIZONA at DETROIT</b></i>
<li>ARIZONA is 20-11 OVER (+8.5 Units) vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game this season. The average score was ARIZONA 4.9, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>SAN FRANCISCO at TORONTO</b></i>
<li>TORONTO is 17-5 OVER (+11.8 Units) vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season. The average score was TORONTO 5.0, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 3*)
<b><i>LA DODGERS at BOSTON</b></i>
<li>BOSTON is 66-28 (+29.4 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 6.3, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>TAMPA BAY at FLORIDA</b></i>
<li>TAMPA BAY is 16-3 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.3, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 3*)
<b><i>KANSAS CITY at ATLANTA</b></i>
<li>KANSAS CITY is 60-35 OVER (+22.1 Units) vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.5, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>TEXAS at HOUSTON</b></i>
<li>HOUSTON is 73-47 UNDER (+19.6 Units) vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 3.7, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>OAKLAND at ST LOUIS</b></i>
<li>ST LOUIS is 27-11 UNDER (+14.4 Units) in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.0, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>BALTIMORE at SAN DIEGO</b></i>
<li>BALTIMORE is 2-16 (-13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.8, OPPONENT 6.9 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>CINCINNATI at SEATTLE</b></i>
<li>CINCINNATI is 66-41 (+24.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CINCINNATI 4.9, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)
MLB: Terrific Totals System in Houston
2010-04-29
After a 0-8 start to 2010, the Astros finally got off the launching pad and won eight of their next 10 to post a respectable record for April. Unfortunately the next opponent after the hot stretch was Cincinnati, their kryptonite if you will. The Reds have won the first two games of this series taking their record to 11-1 against the Stros, with six wins in seven tries at Minute Maid Park. In the final game of the set, the host Astros send ace Roy Oswalt to the mound and are a -170 ML favorite according to Sportsbook.com.
Tonight’s situation doesn’t set up nearly as well for the Reds as the last two days, facing their greatest nemesis. Houston’s offense is laughable, ranked last in runs scored at 3.3 per game and on-base percentage of .285, but that hardly matters with Roy Oswalt (2-2, 2.42 ERA) pitching. The right-hander is 23-1 lifetime against Cincinnati with a 2.58 ERA. When dressed in the home whites, Oswalt is perfect 12-0 in 16 starts with even lower earned run average of 2.26.
Oswalt will be opposed by Bronson Arroyo (0-2, 7.43), who is like a Moen faucet, he runs hot and cold. Presently he is in the near frozen category, but his manager has seen this before.
“We’ve covered this before,” Dusty Baker said. “He’ll go through a few starts where he struggles, then he’ll reel off seven or eight in a row. I hope this is the end of the bad streak.”
Arroyo is 4-0 in last four starts against Houston, with razor-sharp 1.69 ERA and two complete games.
Houston is a -170 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com; however the important number is the total which is 7.5 for this super situation.
Play Under on home teams when the total is 7 to 8.5, with a repugnant offensive scoring less than 4.1 runs per game, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, facing a NL pitcher with ERA of 5.70 or higher.
Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average first climbed above 8,000 (1997), this totals system is 38-13. For additional reinforcement, Arroyo is 13-2 UNDER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game and Houston is 27-12 UNDER the first month of the season the last two years.
Take a long look at this highly profitable baseball system.
MLB: The Texas Rangers are an Under team!
2009-08-19
One of the more unusual aspects of the 2009 baseball season has been the play of the Texas Rangers and not for the typical reasons many would consider. The Rangers are still within striking distance of the Los Angeles Angels for the lead in the AL West and are running neck and neck with Boston for the wild card after sweeping them at home this past weekend. What makes this Texas team absolutely crazy is how they have evolved against the oddsmakers totals.
After years of being a high scoring club that more resembled a top level slow-pitch softball team by the way they could score runs, these Rangers are fairly pedestrian 12th in Major League Baseball at 4.8 runs per game. The shocker is the pitching. Having played seven more home games than road games to date this season, Texas is sixth in runs allowed at (that is SIXTH, like in 7-1= 6) 4.3 runs per game. While most Rangers fans only dreamed of ever seeing competent big league pitching, manager Ron Washington actually has them performing it.
With a slightly above average offense and a pitching staff taking this team places it has never seen, Texas has confounded oddmakers and bettors alike. Texas is the top Under team in baseball by a large margin at 73-40-4. If you analyzed the standings of the top Under teams in baseball like the regular baseball standings, the Rangers would have a lead similar to the Yankees, 7.5 games clear of the second place Chicago White Sox, who is 67-49-3 Under this season.
What has accounted for this change in Texas baseball? Rest assured the skipper Washington wished he had more offense, it just hasn’t happened. The Rangers Ballpark at Arlington is still the same; short fences in the power alleys will still surrender an ample amount of home runs, with the Rangers second in baseball to the Yankees. However, when you look at the hitting numbers, they don’t add up like prior years. Michael Young is still Michael Young, hitting well over .300, but he’s the only starter even close. Second baseman Ian Kinsler and Hank Blalock are closer to the Mendoza-line (.200 batting average) than to batting .300. Josh Hamilton’s off-season indiscretions aside, he’s a mere shell of the player who was a true All-Star in 2008, currently with eight homers and 40 runs batted in.
In 2009, this Rangers club is built around pitching and its new philosophy. President Nolan Ryan didn’t want any more coddling of pitchers; he wants them to be a man like he was. Pitch counts are for wussies, throw strikes and have your fielders take care of the rest.
Consider these un-Rangers’ like numbers. In the American League, Texas is 3rd in ERA and WHIP, and 5th in batting average allowed and on-base percentage allowed. Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson lead a bullpen that has converted 36 of 45 save attempts, among the best in baseball. Plus, collectively, the bullpen has a rare better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.
Though it takes getting used to, at almost three-quarters of the way thru the season, Texas is Under team and it’s not a fluke. This is supported by 39-20-3 Under record at home, 29-11-2 Under record versus left-hand starters and 37-20-2 Under mark as a favorite.
Our sitting president talked a year ago about change, the Texas Rangers represent one of the biggest changes in baseball in 2009, being a decided Under team.
MLB: Three more Opening Day Baseball Betting Opportunities
2009-04-07
There was an abundance of ugly April weather in the upper Midwest and East, which cancelled two season openers in Chicago and Boston on Monday. That shouldn’t temper too much of the enthusiasm of fans in those cities, who just have to bundle up a little bit more and keep those liquid beverages coming. Out West, the last two teams scheduled to join the season opening festivities will do battle, with San Francisco and it Cy Young winner hosting Milwaukee, giving baseball bettors six new teams to look at to start the 2009 campaign.
2:05 E – Kansas City at Chicago White Sox– FSRM and CSN
The Chicago White Sox open defense of their AL Central division title a day later than expected against a Kansas City team excited to get playing. The Royals closed the last season 18-8, giving them reasons for optimism they can compete for the postseason. They will need young players like third-baseman Alex Gordon to start fulfilling expectations and the continued development of pitching staff. Gil Meche will be the opening day starter for the Royals who are +130 money line underdogs at Sportsbook.com, with total Ov7.5. Last season, Kansas City was 14-8 in underdog role with Meche starting. The White Sox have low expectations by prognosticators, which is just the way they like it. Mark Buehrle will make his seventh opening day start and is .500 in that spot. Chicago has been a dominant home team and is coming off 20-6 year playing at US Cellular Field during the day.
4:05 E – Tampa Bay at Boston – NESN
It’s a rematch of last season’s American League championship. Tampa Bay will look to defend its title starting at a place they where they used to be soundly beaten. The Rays are 25-68 against Boston at Fenway Park; however they won four of six in September and October to help propel them to first ever playoffs and World Series. James Shields believes he’s a 20-game winner if he pitches better on the road and this will be excellent opportunity to test his belief. The Red Sox are -150 home favorites and with Ov8.5 total, with Josh Becket taking the mound. Boston was 32-12 (+14.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 last season and would like to reestablish dominance at home from the start.
4:05 E - Milwaukee at San Francisco – FSWI and CSBA
The last two National League teams will get their season’s underway out in the Bay Area. Tim Lincecum off his brilliant season with 18-5 record, a 2.62 ERA and a major league-best 265 strikeouts, draws the opening day assignment for San Francisco. After years of being one of the oldest teams in baseball, the Giants are starting three infielders 25 years old or younger, as they begin rebuilding process after losing 90 games in 2008. Milwaukee will hopes its supply of power-laden young hitters can carry the team back to the postseason season, after making the playoff for the first time in 26 years. The Brewers have a dangerous with lineup Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy, who can all crush the ball. Veteran Jeff Suppan is the designated starter, in part because of years of service. He and Milwaukee are +150 money line underdogs, with total Ov7. The Brewers have lost 59 of last 87 games as road underdog, with San Fran having won 14 of last 20 home games.
MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends
2008-08-08
Two key series’ in each league will highlight the MLB schedule for the weekend as continue to push deeper into the pennant races. In the National League, division rivals will go head-to-head in both Chicago and New York, as the Cubs welcome St. Louis to town, and the Mets host a 3-game series against the Marlins. In the American League, it’s the battle of the Sox, Red and White, from the south side of the Chicago, along with a big series on the West Coast with the Angels welcoming the Yankees to L.A. It’s a big weekend of baseball, so here’s a closer look at all four of those key series’, along with a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 weekend matchups on the diamond.
On the north side of the Windy City, the N.L. Central Division leading Cubs will host rival St. Louis. The Cardinals sit 6-games back in the division race and 1-game out of the top wildcard spot in the National League. They are starting a critical 10-game road swing this weekend that also includes stops in Florida and Cincinnati. Fortunately for St. Louis, the road has been kind this year, as the Cards boast a healthy 31-25 record away, having scored 5.3 runs per game while batting .282. Still, the Cubs 43-16 record at Wrigley could trump any of those numbers.
At Shea, the Mets and Marlins will go at it for three key games over the weekend. With both teams back within 2-games of division leading Philadelphia, the series takes on significance. Neither team can afford to lose ground to the Phillies, who host the lowly Pirates this weekend. New York has taken five of the nine meetings between these teams this year and will be looking to improve its 34-21 record at home. The Mets are 11-2 in their last 13 games as hosts and haven’t lost a series in New York since June. Meanwhile, the next 10 games for the Marlins could make or break the ’08 season, as all 10 come against teams in the pennant race.
Switching focus to the junior circuit, on the south side of Chicago, the Red Sox will spend the weekend at U.S. Cellular Field taking on the leaders of the Central Division. Boston remains in striking distance of Tampa Bay in the East, but this figures to be a key 4-game series for the Red Sox, since they’ve struggled on the road against good teams this year. The White Sox meanwhile, are just a half-game up in the Central over Minnesota and have not fared well against Boston lately, losing six of the last seven at home.
Finally, in Los Angeles, the Yankees and Angels hook up for the second straight weekend, only this time on the other side of the country. In New York last weekend, the teams split four games. The Yankees face a big six-game road trip which will conclude in Minnesota in the early part of next week. At 5-1/2 games down to the Rays, anything shy of a 3-3 trip will be damaging to their playoff hopes. For the Angels, sitting comfortably 12 games ahead in the West, it’s almost time to start counting magic numbers.
Now, here’s a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 series’ on tap for the weekend.
ST LOUIS at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 14-4 (+9.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better this season.
The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 6.2, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)
PITTSBURGH at PHILADELPHIA
PITTSBURGH is 12-45 (-26.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.9, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 2*)
HOUSTON at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 19-33 (-18.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 2*)
FLORIDA at NY METS
FLORIDA is 19-12 (+14.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was FLORIDA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)
WASHINGTON at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 20-3 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 6.1, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 2*)
SAN DIEGO at COLORADO
SAN DIEGO is 4-17 (-16.7 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.4, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 4*)
ATLANTA at ARIZONA
ATLANTA is 29-13 UNDER (+13.6 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 4.3, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*)
LA DODGERS at SAN FRANCISCO
LA DODGERS are 23-12 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 73-33 (+31.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 5.7 or more runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at DETROIT
DETROIT is 17-25 (-13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 5.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at TORONTO
TORONTO is 13-1 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 6.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY
MINNESOTA is 21-7 (+17.3 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 4*)
BOSTON at CHI WHITE SOX
BOSTON is 11-24 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was BOSTON 4.1, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)
NY YANKEES at LA ANGELS
NY YANKEES are 11-0 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was NY YANKEES 6.5, OPPONENT 1.7 - (Rating = 4*)
TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE
TAMPA BAY is 5-17 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.4, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
2010-06-19
Another weekend of interleague baseball is upon us and there are several key series’ you’ll want to keep close tabs on, including the Subway Series in New York between the Mets and Yankees from the Bronx. The Mets have been MLB’s best team in interleague play this season at 8-1, but unfortunately, their colleagues have once again fallen into the clutches of the superior A.L. teams. Heading into Friday’s games, the Junior Circuit holds a 66-60 lead in head-to-head play. Perhaps that can change this weekend, as the N.L. clubs host nine of the 14 interleague sets. Let’s take a look at the key action and reveal the list of Top StatFox Power Trends that you’ll want to consider in your weekend wagering.
The first series you’ll want to take a closer look at puts Minnesota in Philadelphia to take on the Phillies. The hosts come off back-to-back wins at Yankee Stadium and are within 3-1/2 games of the lead in the N.L. East. They are a disappointing 16-13 at home though and have gone just 3-12 for -13.3 net units against A.L. teams at home over the last two seasons. The A.L. Central-leading Twins have historically been one of the best interleague clubs but are a pedestrian 5-4 in 2010.
The Subway series will be the highlight matchup of the weekend for no other reason than the fact that both teams are playing well and at or right near the top of their respective divisions. The Mets come in on a seven game winning streak and as winners of 11 of their last 12 games. Their bats have come alive of late, having pounded out 58 hits over the last four games. The Yankees come in off back-to-back losses but still remain deadlocked with Tampa Bay in the A.L. East standings. These teams hooked up nearly a month ago at Citi Field with the Mets taking two of three. They are 4-2 in their last six games on the road in this rivalry.
The Dodgers and Red Sox square off for three games in what figures to be another great series. After starting the season in shaky fashion, both teams have rebounded quickly and find themselves right back in the hunt in their respective divisions. Boston is just 2-games back in the A.L. East, thanks much in part to an impressive 7-2 interleague record. They have won five of six games on their current homestand vs. N.L. foes, extending their record to 86-39 in interleague play under Terry Francona. The Dodgers, who are tied atop the N.L. West with San Diego, are just 2-4 vs. the A.L. in 2010, including a sweep at the hands of the Angels last weekend.
There are other regional rivalries that should produce good baseball in other parts of the country as well. In Florida, the Marlins welcome Tampa Bay to conclude a home-and-home series and in Houston, the Astros play host to the A.L. West leading Rangers. Elsewhere, Stephen Strasburg throws the first game of the Nationals home series with the White Sox and Pittsburgh looks for a first interleague victory of the year when it hosts Cleveland.
Now, here’s a look at some of those Top StatFox Power Trends you’ll want to consider in your weekend wagering, direct from FoxSheets, the Ultimate Sports Tipsheet
<b><i>MILWAUKEE at COLORADO</b></i>
<li>MILWAUKEE is 22-11 OVER (+10.6 Units) in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.9, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>LA ANGELS at CHICAGO CUBS</b></i>
<li>LA ANGELS are 19-9 (+11.1 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA</b></i>
<li>MINNESOTA is 18-6 (+15.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.0, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>NY METS at NY YANKEES</b></i>
<li>NY YANKEES are 23-3 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.6, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>CHI WHITE SOX at WASHINGTON</b></i>
<li>WASHINGTON is 22-4 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. The average score was WASHINGTON 5.1, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH</b></i>
<li>CLEVELAND is 6-17 (-14.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 3.9, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>ARIZONA at DETROIT</b></i>
<li>ARIZONA is 20-11 OVER (+8.5 Units) vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game this season. The average score was ARIZONA 4.9, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>SAN FRANCISCO at TORONTO</b></i>
<li>TORONTO is 17-5 OVER (+11.8 Units) vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season. The average score was TORONTO 5.0, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 3*)
<b><i>LA DODGERS at BOSTON</b></i>
<li>BOSTON is 66-28 (+29.4 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 6.3, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>TAMPA BAY at FLORIDA</b></i>
<li>TAMPA BAY is 16-3 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.3, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 3*)
<b><i>KANSAS CITY at ATLANTA</b></i>
<li>KANSAS CITY is 60-35 OVER (+22.1 Units) vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.5, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>TEXAS at HOUSTON</b></i>
<li>HOUSTON is 73-47 UNDER (+19.6 Units) vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 3.7, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>OAKLAND at ST LOUIS</b></i>
<li>ST LOUIS is 27-11 UNDER (+14.4 Units) in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.0, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>BALTIMORE at SAN DIEGO</b></i>
<li>BALTIMORE is 2-16 (-13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.8, OPPONENT 6.9 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>CINCINNATI at SEATTLE</b></i>
<li>CINCINNATI is 66-41 (+24.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CINCINNATI 4.9, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)
MLB: Terrific Totals System in Houston
2010-04-29
After a 0-8 start to 2010, the Astros finally got off the launching pad and won eight of their next 10 to post a respectable record for April. Unfortunately the next opponent after the hot stretch was Cincinnati, their kryptonite if you will. The Reds have won the first two games of this series taking their record to 11-1 against the Stros, with six wins in seven tries at Minute Maid Park. In the final game of the set, the host Astros send ace Roy Oswalt to the mound and are a -170 ML favorite according to Sportsbook.com.
Tonight’s situation doesn’t set up nearly as well for the Reds as the last two days, facing their greatest nemesis. Houston’s offense is laughable, ranked last in runs scored at 3.3 per game and on-base percentage of .285, but that hardly matters with Roy Oswalt (2-2, 2.42 ERA) pitching. The right-hander is 23-1 lifetime against Cincinnati with a 2.58 ERA. When dressed in the home whites, Oswalt is perfect 12-0 in 16 starts with even lower earned run average of 2.26.
Oswalt will be opposed by Bronson Arroyo (0-2, 7.43), who is like a Moen faucet, he runs hot and cold. Presently he is in the near frozen category, but his manager has seen this before.
“We’ve covered this before,” Dusty Baker said. “He’ll go through a few starts where he struggles, then he’ll reel off seven or eight in a row. I hope this is the end of the bad streak.”
Arroyo is 4-0 in last four starts against Houston, with razor-sharp 1.69 ERA and two complete games.
Houston is a -170 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com; however the important number is the total which is 7.5 for this super situation.
Play Under on home teams when the total is 7 to 8.5, with a repugnant offensive scoring less than 4.1 runs per game, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, facing a NL pitcher with ERA of 5.70 or higher.
Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average first climbed above 8,000 (1997), this totals system is 38-13. For additional reinforcement, Arroyo is 13-2 UNDER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game and Houston is 27-12 UNDER the first month of the season the last two years.
Take a long look at this highly profitable baseball system.
MLB: The Texas Rangers are an Under team!
2009-08-19
One of the more unusual aspects of the 2009 baseball season has been the play of the Texas Rangers and not for the typical reasons many would consider. The Rangers are still within striking distance of the Los Angeles Angels for the lead in the AL West and are running neck and neck with Boston for the wild card after sweeping them at home this past weekend. What makes this Texas team absolutely crazy is how they have evolved against the oddsmakers totals.
After years of being a high scoring club that more resembled a top level slow-pitch softball team by the way they could score runs, these Rangers are fairly pedestrian 12th in Major League Baseball at 4.8 runs per game. The shocker is the pitching. Having played seven more home games than road games to date this season, Texas is sixth in runs allowed at (that is SIXTH, like in 7-1= 6) 4.3 runs per game. While most Rangers fans only dreamed of ever seeing competent big league pitching, manager Ron Washington actually has them performing it.
With a slightly above average offense and a pitching staff taking this team places it has never seen, Texas has confounded oddmakers and bettors alike. Texas is the top Under team in baseball by a large margin at 73-40-4. If you analyzed the standings of the top Under teams in baseball like the regular baseball standings, the Rangers would have a lead similar to the Yankees, 7.5 games clear of the second place Chicago White Sox, who is 67-49-3 Under this season.
What has accounted for this change in Texas baseball? Rest assured the skipper Washington wished he had more offense, it just hasn’t happened. The Rangers Ballpark at Arlington is still the same; short fences in the power alleys will still surrender an ample amount of home runs, with the Rangers second in baseball to the Yankees. However, when you look at the hitting numbers, they don’t add up like prior years. Michael Young is still Michael Young, hitting well over .300, but he’s the only starter even close. Second baseman Ian Kinsler and Hank Blalock are closer to the Mendoza-line (.200 batting average) than to batting .300. Josh Hamilton’s off-season indiscretions aside, he’s a mere shell of the player who was a true All-Star in 2008, currently with eight homers and 40 runs batted in.
In 2009, this Rangers club is built around pitching and its new philosophy. President Nolan Ryan didn’t want any more coddling of pitchers; he wants them to be a man like he was. Pitch counts are for wussies, throw strikes and have your fielders take care of the rest.
Consider these un-Rangers’ like numbers. In the American League, Texas is 3rd in ERA and WHIP, and 5th in batting average allowed and on-base percentage allowed. Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson lead a bullpen that has converted 36 of 45 save attempts, among the best in baseball. Plus, collectively, the bullpen has a rare better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.
Though it takes getting used to, at almost three-quarters of the way thru the season, Texas is Under team and it’s not a fluke. This is supported by 39-20-3 Under record at home, 29-11-2 Under record versus left-hand starters and 37-20-2 Under mark as a favorite.
Our sitting president talked a year ago about change, the Texas Rangers represent one of the biggest changes in baseball in 2009, being a decided Under team.
MLB: Three more Opening Day Baseball Betting Opportunities
2009-04-07
There was an abundance of ugly April weather in the upper Midwest and East, which cancelled two season openers in Chicago and Boston on Monday. That shouldn’t temper too much of the enthusiasm of fans in those cities, who just have to bundle up a little bit more and keep those liquid beverages coming. Out West, the last two teams scheduled to join the season opening festivities will do battle, with San Francisco and it Cy Young winner hosting Milwaukee, giving baseball bettors six new teams to look at to start the 2009 campaign.
2:05 E – Kansas City at Chicago White Sox– FSRM and CSN
The Chicago White Sox open defense of their AL Central division title a day later than expected against a Kansas City team excited to get playing. The Royals closed the last season 18-8, giving them reasons for optimism they can compete for the postseason. They will need young players like third-baseman Alex Gordon to start fulfilling expectations and the continued development of pitching staff. Gil Meche will be the opening day starter for the Royals who are +130 money line underdogs at Sportsbook.com, with total Ov7.5. Last season, Kansas City was 14-8 in underdog role with Meche starting. The White Sox have low expectations by prognosticators, which is just the way they like it. Mark Buehrle will make his seventh opening day start and is .500 in that spot. Chicago has been a dominant home team and is coming off 20-6 year playing at US Cellular Field during the day.
4:05 E – Tampa Bay at Boston – NESN
It’s a rematch of last season’s American League championship. Tampa Bay will look to defend its title starting at a place they where they used to be soundly beaten. The Rays are 25-68 against Boston at Fenway Park; however they won four of six in September and October to help propel them to first ever playoffs and World Series. James Shields believes he’s a 20-game winner if he pitches better on the road and this will be excellent opportunity to test his belief. The Red Sox are -150 home favorites and with Ov8.5 total, with Josh Becket taking the mound. Boston was 32-12 (+14.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 last season and would like to reestablish dominance at home from the start.
4:05 E - Milwaukee at San Francisco – FSWI and CSBA
The last two National League teams will get their season’s underway out in the Bay Area. Tim Lincecum off his brilliant season with 18-5 record, a 2.62 ERA and a major league-best 265 strikeouts, draws the opening day assignment for San Francisco. After years of being one of the oldest teams in baseball, the Giants are starting three infielders 25 years old or younger, as they begin rebuilding process after losing 90 games in 2008. Milwaukee will hopes its supply of power-laden young hitters can carry the team back to the postseason season, after making the playoff for the first time in 26 years. The Brewers have a dangerous with lineup Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy, who can all crush the ball. Veteran Jeff Suppan is the designated starter, in part because of years of service. He and Milwaukee are +150 money line underdogs, with total Ov7. The Brewers have lost 59 of last 87 games as road underdog, with San Fran having won 14 of last 20 home games.
MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends
2008-08-08
Two key series’ in each league will highlight the MLB schedule for the weekend as continue to push deeper into the pennant races. In the National League, division rivals will go head-to-head in both Chicago and New York, as the Cubs welcome St. Louis to town, and the Mets host a 3-game series against the Marlins. In the American League, it’s the battle of the Sox, Red and White, from the south side of the Chicago, along with a big series on the West Coast with the Angels welcoming the Yankees to L.A. It’s a big weekend of baseball, so here’s a closer look at all four of those key series’, along with a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 weekend matchups on the diamond.
On the north side of the Windy City, the N.L. Central Division leading Cubs will host rival St. Louis. The Cardinals sit 6-games back in the division race and 1-game out of the top wildcard spot in the National League. They are starting a critical 10-game road swing this weekend that also includes stops in Florida and Cincinnati. Fortunately for St. Louis, the road has been kind this year, as the Cards boast a healthy 31-25 record away, having scored 5.3 runs per game while batting .282. Still, the Cubs 43-16 record at Wrigley could trump any of those numbers.
At Shea, the Mets and Marlins will go at it for three key games over the weekend. With both teams back within 2-games of division leading Philadelphia, the series takes on significance. Neither team can afford to lose ground to the Phillies, who host the lowly Pirates this weekend. New York has taken five of the nine meetings between these teams this year and will be looking to improve its 34-21 record at home. The Mets are 11-2 in their last 13 games as hosts and haven’t lost a series in New York since June. Meanwhile, the next 10 games for the Marlins could make or break the ’08 season, as all 10 come against teams in the pennant race.
Switching focus to the junior circuit, on the south side of Chicago, the Red Sox will spend the weekend at U.S. Cellular Field taking on the leaders of the Central Division. Boston remains in striking distance of Tampa Bay in the East, but this figures to be a key 4-game series for the Red Sox, since they’ve struggled on the road against good teams this year. The White Sox meanwhile, are just a half-game up in the Central over Minnesota and have not fared well against Boston lately, losing six of the last seven at home.
Finally, in Los Angeles, the Yankees and Angels hook up for the second straight weekend, only this time on the other side of the country. In New York last weekend, the teams split four games. The Yankees face a big six-game road trip which will conclude in Minnesota in the early part of next week. At 5-1/2 games down to the Rays, anything shy of a 3-3 trip will be damaging to their playoff hopes. For the Angels, sitting comfortably 12 games ahead in the West, it’s almost time to start counting magic numbers.
Now, here’s a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 series’ on tap for the weekend.
ST LOUIS at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 14-4 (+9.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better this season.
The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 6.2, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)
PITTSBURGH at PHILADELPHIA
PITTSBURGH is 12-45 (-26.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.9, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 2*)
HOUSTON at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 19-33 (-18.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 2*)
FLORIDA at NY METS
FLORIDA is 19-12 (+14.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was FLORIDA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)
WASHINGTON at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 20-3 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 6.1, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 2*)
SAN DIEGO at COLORADO
SAN DIEGO is 4-17 (-16.7 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.4, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 4*)
ATLANTA at ARIZONA
ATLANTA is 29-13 UNDER (+13.6 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 4.3, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*)
LA DODGERS at SAN FRANCISCO
LA DODGERS are 23-12 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 73-33 (+31.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 5.7 or more runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at DETROIT
DETROIT is 17-25 (-13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 5.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at TORONTO
TORONTO is 13-1 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 6.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY
MINNESOTA is 21-7 (+17.3 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 4*)
BOSTON at CHI WHITE SOX
BOSTON is 11-24 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was BOSTON 4.1, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)
NY YANKEES at LA ANGELS
NY YANKEES are 11-0 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was NY YANKEES 6.5, OPPONENT 1.7 - (Rating = 4*)
TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE
TAMPA BAY is 5-17 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.4, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)